Tehran – Professor Foad Izadi, an international relations expert at the University of Tehran, recently assessed the stability of a regional ceasefire, assigning it a 6 or 7 out of 10 chance of falling apart. His comments, shared via a social media post by Mario Nawfal, highlight deep skepticism regarding the longevity of current de-escalation efforts amidst persistent geopolitical tensions. Izadi's analysis comes as recent reports indicate significant hurdles in securing a lasting truce in the Gaza Strip, with ongoing military operations and differing demands from involved parties contributing to a precarious situation.
Professor Izadi's concerns are rooted in what he perceives as enduring U.S. strategic objectives in the Middle East. He cited former President Donald Trump's past ambitions, noting that Trump had previously told the Financial Times of his desire to control or diminish Iran's oil revenues. While not directly stating a wish to "seize" oil, Trump's administration pursued policies aimed at bringing Iran's oil exports to zero through stringent sanctions, effectively limiting Iran's economic power derived from its primary resource.
According to Izadi, these ambitions extend beyond Iranian oil to the broader Persian Gulf energy corridor, which he identifies as the "real target." The Persian Gulf is a critical region for global energy security, supplying a significant portion of the world's oil, and is a central arena for U.S.-China strategic competition. Both powers view influence in this corridor as crucial for economic stability and strategic leverage, aligning with Izadi's assertion that the U.S. seeks dominance to gain an advantage, particularly over China.
The geopolitical landscape further complicates stability, with Benjamin Netanyahu currently serving his sixth term as Prime Minister of Israel, known for his firm stance against Iran. Izadi also noted Trump's continued political influence, suggesting that "more rounds" of conflict are anticipated. This perspective underscores the view that underlying political and security issues remain unaddressed, making any temporary truce inherently fragile.
Professor Izadi articulated a broader critique of U.S. foreign policy, stating, > "United States is a country in decline. And they want to reverse that decline by basically dominating a very important part of the world." This viewpoint suggests that efforts to exert control over critical regions like the Middle East are part of a larger strategy to maintain global power, contributing to the ongoing volatility and the high probability of ceasefire collapse.
