A recent analysis by Eric Bordenkircher Ph.D., published in Quillette, asserts that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) cannot effectively confront and subdue Hezbollah without a fundamental rebuilding and reform of Lebanese society. Bordenkircher’s commentary highlights that such a comprehensive societal rehabilitation could unfortunately take generations, underscoring the deep-seated challenges impacting Lebanon's state institutions and security apparatus. This perspective emphasizes the intricate link between national military effectiveness and the underlying socio-political health of a country.
“For a responsible and effective Lebanese Army to be created, Lebanese society would have to be rebuilt and reformed. Unfortunately, rehabilitating such a society can take generations. But without that rehabilitation, the LAF cannot effectively confront and subdue Hezbollah,” Bordenkircher stated in his article, shared via social media.
Hezbollah, a powerful Shia political party and militant group, maintains significant influence across Lebanon's political, economic, and security landscapes. Its military wing operates with considerable autonomy, possessing its own arsenal and command structure that often functions independently of, or even in parallel with, the national army. This pervasive influence, coupled with Hezbollah's deep integration into the social and political fabric of the nation, profoundly complicates any direct confrontation by the LAF.
The Lebanese Armed Forces itself faces severe operational and morale challenges, significantly exacerbated by the country's ongoing profound economic crisis. This financial downturn has drastically devalued soldiers' salaries, hindered essential maintenance, and led to a "brain drain" as experienced personnel depart for better opportunities abroad. Consequently, the LAF's primary role has increasingly shifted towards maintaining internal stability, border control, and humanitarian aid, rather than engaging well-armed non-state actors.
Further complicating the LAF's mandate are Lebanon's persistent political paralysis, deep-seated corruption, and entrenched sectarian divisions. These systemic issues constrain the military's ability to act decisively, as consensus on sensitive security matters is often elusive. Experts note that the LAF's capacity to assert full state authority is limited by political constraints, resource deficiencies, and the inherent risk of escalating internal conflict, reinforcing the argument that fundamental societal and political changes are prerequisites for any significant shift in the LAF's effectiveness against powerful domestic groups.
