Recent military developments in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, particularly during early 2026, are significantly challenging the previously held notion that "Ukraine cannot win against such a large country as Russia." This sentiment, described by Beth Martin in a recent tweet as "always a bad & ignorant take," appears increasingly outdated as Ukrainian forces demonstrate notable resilience and offensive capabilities.
Ukrainian battlefield gains in April 2026 marked the first time Russia lost ground since summer 2024, according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Atlantic Council. These advances are attributed primarily to mounting command and communications problems within the Russian military. One significant factor was SpaceX's decision to cut Russian forces' illicit access to the Starlink satellite system in early 2026, leading to Ukrainian forces advancing ten to twelve kilometers on the southern front within weeks.
Beyond communication issues, Ukrainian forces have actively pursued a strategy of degrading Russian combat power. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported on May 20 that Ukrainian drones struck 19,203 Russian personnel in the first 19 days of May alone. This highlights a systematic effort to reduce Russia's ability to sustain assault operations.
Territorial gains have also been reported. In March 2026, General Oleksandr Komarenko, head of the Main Operative Department at the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, claimed that Ukrainian forces had restored control over 285.6 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka direction and almost fully liberated Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This marked the first month since 2024 where Ukraine regained more territory than it lost.
Furthermore, Ukraine has intensified its mid-range strike campaign against Russian military and oil infrastructure. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported a near doubling of Russian air defense and radar systems destroyed in April 2026 compared to October 2025, including 12 Pantsir systems in occupied Crimea. These strikes aim to suppress Russian air defenses and enable further operations.
The ongoing developments underscore a dynamic and evolving conflict, where Ukraine's strategic adaptations and effective use of technology are proving critical in countering Russia's numerical superiority. The narrative of an unwinnable war for Ukraine is being actively reshaped by these persistent and impactful military actions.
