Remember the $120 oil nightmare everyone thought India had dodged?
It's back on the table.
Goldman Sachs just warned Brent crude could rocket past $120 a barrel by Q4 if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep dragging on.
And India? India has everything to lose.
One narrow waterway.
Around one-fifth of global oil squeezes through it every single day.
Right now, Persian Gulf flows have collapsed to below 45% of pre-war levels.
That's not a wobble. That's a wound.
Goldman's base case still says Brent averages $80 in Q4 and $75 next year — if things calm down.
But the risks? All tilted upward.
Rewind to late February.
The US and Israel entered open conflict with Iran. Analysts screamed $150. Some said $200.
What actually happened:
Oil is now hovering near $88.87 — but the market is jumpy, inventories are thin, and one bad headline could send it flying.
India imports more than 85% of its crude.
And over 40% of those imports sail through the Strait of Hormuz.
JM Financial's math is brutal:
👉 Every $1 rise in crude = $2 billion added to India's annual import bill.
Now imagine crude jumping $30.
The Middle East isn't just an oil supplier for India. It's:
One region. Three lifelines. All exposed.
The rupee has hit record lows every single month from January to May 2026, breaching 95 against the dollar — its sharpest slide since 2013.
In May, when Brent crossed $111, USD/INR touched 96.17.
Analysts are now openly whispering the unthinkable number: 100.
And it doesn't stop at forex.
Petrol and diesel prices in India were already hiked multiple times in May as oil marketing companies buckled under global crude pressure.
Inflation. Fuel bills. Fiscal math. All on a knife-edge.
$120 crude isn't Goldman's base case.
It's the tail — but the tail is fattening fast.
For India, the story isn't about one waterway 4,000 km away.
It's about the price of your next tank of petrol, the value of every rupee in your wallet, and the RBI's ability to keep the economy steady.
When Hormuz sneezes, India catches a fever.
Right now, the thermometer is climbing.
That's all for now!
