Oil just had one of its wildest single-day moves of the year.
Crude crashed over 9% to $88/barrel on Monday…
after the US quietly hit pause on its strikes against Iran.
And Tehran signalled it wouldn't hit back.
The market exhaled.
Here's the twist nobody saw coming.
The de-escalation wasn't brokered by Washington or Brussels.
It was nudged along by Beijing — working through Pakistan — to revive stalled US-Iran talks.
Why does China care so much?
Because Iran's Gulf attacks and the Strait of Hormuz closure were smashing Chinese energy interests.
Money talks. Even in war zones.
A quick rewind:
The guns are quiet. The tankers aren't moving.
Fewer than 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz per day over the weekend.
That's a trickle compared to normal.
And remember — this one waterway usually carries around 20% of the world's oil.
Roughly 20 million barrels a day.
Still closed. Still under US blockade.
Meanwhile in the Red Sea, Houthis hit Saudi oil sites along the coast. Bab el-Mandeb traffic dropped again on Sunday.
The big banks aren't buying the peace narrative yet.
Risks, they warn, are "tilted to the upside."
Forget the missiles for a second.
The next fight is about paperwork — Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief, proxy militias, and safe passage through Hormuz.
Oman is quietly playing referee. An Omani delegation was in Tehran over the weekend trying to hammer out a provisional shipping deal.
And here's the number that should keep every trader up at night:
Even after today's 9% crash…
crude is still ~30% higher than it was a month ago.
The headline pressure eased.
The supply risk didn't.
This isn't the end of the oil shock.
It's just the market catching its breath.
That's all for now!
