Increasing Russian oil imports is India’s obvious choice amid Red Sea conflict, says BPCL executive

A war that started at the Strait of Hormuz just opened a second front.

Yemen's Houthi militia is now targeting Saudi Arabian tankers crossing the Bab al-Mandab — the other chokepoint that keeps oil flowing toward India.

And the strain is already showing up in the data.

Vessel crossings there have dropped from 43 a day to 31 in just three days.

For a country that imports over 88% of its oil, that's not a footnote.

That's a red alert.

So what's India's move.

🛢️ Turn up the Russian tap

BPCL's chairman Sanjay Khanna all but confirmed it this week — if Saudi barrels get squeezed, Russian oil fills the gap.

It's already happening.

📈 India's Russian oil imports jumped from ~1 million bpd in February to 2.6 million bpd by June
🇷🇺 That's over 50% of India's total crude imports — up from under 40% coming through Hormuz before the war
💰 Could climb toward 3 million bpd if supply allows

Sounds like a clean fix, right?

Stay with me.

Russian oil isn't a bottomless well.

🔥 Ukrainian strikes just knocked out Novorossiysk's Sheskharis terminal — the port that sent 840,000 bpd to India in June alone
💸 Urals crude used to trade at a $7-a-barrel discount. Not anymore — Indian refiners are now paying a premium as they compete with China and Turkey for the same cargoes
🏭 If Russia's bombed refineries come back online, Moscow may cut exports by up to 1 million bpd to feed its own fuel shortage first

So the hedge has its own risks baked in.

India isn't leaning on Russian oil because it's cheap anymore.

It's leaning on it because it's the least risky option left on the table.

Saudi barrels are stuck behind Houthi attacks.

Gulf oil is trapped at Hormuz.

Even UAE's Murban is now being eyed as an emergency backup.

Every route comes with its own price tag now.

Welcome to the new oil map, where safety — not price — decides where the barrels flow.

That's all for now!