Recent polling averages for the 2026 California gubernatorial election indicate Republican Steve Hilton holding a lead with 17.75% of voter support. This development follows the withdrawal of Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell from the race on April 12, 2026, amidst sexual assault allegations. The updated averages reflect shifts in voter preferences in a highly competitive and fragmented field.
According to a compilation of four polls, including surveys from Emerson, Evitarus, Gudelunas, and Kreate, Hilton, a political commentator, saw a modest increase of 0.75 percentage points. His Republican counterpart, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, secured 14.0% of the vote, marking a 2.0 percentage point rise. The presence of two leading Republican candidates has raised concerns among Democrats about the possibility of a Republican-only general election.
Among the Democratic contenders, billionaire entrepreneur Tom Steyer garnered 14.5% support, experiencing the largest surge with a 3.0 percentage point increase. Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra also saw a significant boost, rising 8.75 points to 12.0%. Former U.S. Representative Katie Porter registered 10.25% support, up 1.75 points, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan stood at 5.0%, an increase of 1.0 point.
The withdrawal of Eric Swalwell, who had been a prominent Democratic candidate, has reshaped the dynamics of the primary race. His decision to suspend his campaign came after multiple news organizations reported allegations of sexual misconduct. "Eric Swalwell must immediately suspend his campaign and resign from Congress," stated a post from Ian Calderon, a former Assembly Majority Leader, on April 10, 2026, reflecting the immediate pressure on Swalwell.
The 2026 election will determine the successor to term-limited Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. With a crowded ballot of over 60 candidates, the state's top-two primary system allows the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, to advance to the general election. The current polling suggests a tight contest as candidates vie for position in the lead-up to the June 2, 2026 primary.
